by Natalie Fitts
The 55th annual GRAMMY Awards will air Feb. 10 at 7 p.m. on CBS. The ceremony will occur at the Staples Center in Los Angeles with LL Cool J returning as host for the second year in a row. So far, scheduled performers include the Black Keys, Fun., the Lumineers, Carrie Underwood, Jack White, Mumford & Sons, Rihanna and Taylor Swift. Dierks Bentley and Miranda Lambert will perform together, as will Elton John and Ed Sheeran. The nominees for each category were announced Dec. 5 in a televised ceremony. In preparation for the event, I will give my predictions for 8 of the most anticipated categories.
Record of the Year
Who will win/who I want to win: “Lonely Boy” – The Black Keys
Grammy voters may want to spread the love if they choose Frank Ocean over The Black Keys for Album of the Year. The Black Keys could win in a similar fashion as Kings of Leon in 2010 with “Use Somebody” as the only true rock song in a field of mostly pop mainstream hits. I prefer “Lonely Boy” because it showcases the ability of alternative rock music to have mass appeal. The Black Keys deserve to be recognized for encompassing the rare ability for making a song that is both radio-friendly and sticks to its rock roots.
Possibilities: “We Are Young” – Fun. ft. Janelle Monae, “Somebody That I Used to Know” – Gotye ft. Kimbra, “Thinkin Bout You” – Frank Ocean
In recent years, this award has been won by several mainstream hits, such as Lady Antebellum’s “Need You Now” and “Rehab” by Amy Winehouse so both “We Are Young” and “Somebody That I Used to Know” have a good chance, as they were two of the biggest radio mainstays of 2012. Last year, Adele won both Record of the Year for “Rolling in the Deep” and Album of the Year for 21, so it wouldn’t be surprising for Ocean to win this category even if he wins Album of the Year.
Long shots: “We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together” – Taylor Swift, “Stronger (What Doesn’t Kill You)” – Kelly Clarkson
“We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together” doesn’t hold a candle to “Mean,” which was honored for Best Country Song last year or “White Horse,” which won Best Country Song for Swift in 2010. Her best chance of winning a Grammy in 2013 is for her song with The Civil Wars, “Safe and Sound.” Likewise, “Stronger (What Doesn’t Kill You)” is not comparable to “Since U Been Gone,” which only won the award for Best Female Pop Vocal Performance in 2006.
Album of the Year
Who will win/who I want to win: Channel Orange – Frank Ocean
Critics and fans alike started predicting this singer-songwriter’s Album of the Year win even before his album came out in July, and they haven’t stopped since. The 25-year-old’s first studio album not only impressed reviewers and music buyers (it sold 131,000 copies in its first week) for its musical artistry, but also for the story surrounding it–Ocean’s sexuality. With his open letter to fans regarding his unrequited love for another man that became the main theme for his album, Ocean became one of the rare R&B artists to be open with his sexuality, something the Grammy voters certainly will not ignore. Channel Orange is just well-known enough, but not too mainstream to satisfy both the voters and the viewers. I want Ocean to win because it is rare for the Grammys in recent years to choose someone who has not had at least one song in rotation on the Top 40 stations. It would be a nice change of pace.
Possibilities: El Camino – The Black Keys, Babel – Mumford & Sons
The Grammys first showed its love for alternative rock albums in 2011 when it gave Arcade Fire this award. It’s possible that since the Grammys chose Adele last year, they could revert to choosing a rock band for this award. Based on the fact that four of the five albums in this category are considered alternative by some, it’s a likely possibility.
Long shots: Some Nights – Fun., Blunderbuss – Jack White
Fun. has the popularity needed to win this award, but they are almost too mainstream. They are the only artist nominated in this category that gets regular play on Top 40 radio so it’s obvious the Grammys are favoring more indie choices this year. White is on the opposite end of the spectrum. There simply wasn’t much buzz about his album, even after it was nominated.
Song of the Year
Who will win: “Call Me Maybe” – Carly Rae Jepsen
As this award is given to the writer(s) of the song, it will be hard for the Grammys to pass up the creators of such an infectious hit. Although it is probably the least “inspired” song in the category, it is rare to write a song that a majority of the population knows, so the writers, which include Jepsen, will likely be recognized in this category.
Who I want to win: “The A Team” – Ed Sheeran
Sheeran definitely wrote the song with the most heart and thought that is nominated in this category. However, he is still gaining steam in the US so if he does not win this year, I am sure his time will come.
Possibility: “We Are Young” – Fun. ft. Janelle Monae
If “Call Me Maybe” was the song of 2012, this was a close second. However, I think they will win in the Best Pop Duo/Group Performance, which will pretty much count them out of this one.
Long shots: “Stronger (What Doesn’t Kill You)” – Kelly Clarkson, “Adorn” – Miguel Pimentel
“Stronger (What Doesn’t Kill You)” is the only song nominated in which the singer can not take any credit for the writing. The last time an artist won in this category without having at least co-written the song was 10 years ago with Norah Jones’s “Don’t Know Why.” Miguel just does not have the same name-recognition as any of the other nominees in the category, which the Grammys often gives to radio favorites.
Best New Artist
Who will win/who I want to: The Lumineers
It is hard for me to call The Lumineers a new artist as they have been making music since 2005. However, this year was huge for them with their first big hit, “Ho Hey.” It is unlikely that they will beat Mumford & Sons in the Best Americana Album category, but the Grammys will probably recognize that the crossover folk band deserves something.
Possibilities: Frank Ocean, Fun., Alabama Shakes
If Ocean wins the Album of the Year award, it is unlikely that he would win this as well, even though it would make sense that if he is the best overall artist, he would be the best new artist as well. However, the Grammys typically do not operate that way. They like to spread the love. If he does not win Album of the Year, there is no doubt in my mind that he would win Best New Artist. Fun. is already too popular to win this. The Grammys like to go with lesser-known artists in this category. Alabama Shakes has gotten some potential buzz for winning this award, but they are too similar to The Lumineers, and when you compare the two, The Lumineers win out.
Long shot: Hunter Hayes
While Hayes has displayed great potential with his country hit “Wanted,” his name is not yet big enough. While the Grammys like to go with lesser-known artists here, they learned their lesson about choosing a too unknown artist in 2011 when Esperanza Spalding won.
Best Pop Duo/Group Performance
Who will win: “We Are Young” – Fun. ft. Janelle Monae
This was easily one of the most popular songs of 2012 and based on the number of nominations Fun. has, it’s safe to say the Grammys love this song as much as the public did. Also, despite having never won a Grammy, Monae has received enough nominations in the past to be considered a Grammy favorite.
Who I want to win: “Shake It Out” – Florence & the Machine
Since this particular award was introduced only a year ago, it is hard to know exactly what the Grammys are looking for in this category. In 2012, they chose collaborating artists over a band, which could potentially count Florence & the Machine out of this category.
Possibility: “Somebody That I Used to Know” – Gotye ft. Kimbra
This song was probably just as popular as “We Are Young,” but seeing that Gotye only has one other nomination, the Grammys do not seem as enamored with him as the general population is. However, that could also be to his advantage because he is probably not going to win in the Best Alternative Music Album category and the Grammys might want to recognize him in some way.
Long shots: “Sexy and I Know It” – LMFAO, “Payphone” – Maroon 5 and Wiz Khalifa
While both of these are fun, uber-popular songs, neither of them are as musically advanced and creative as what is required by the Grammys, or at least what should be required.
Best Pop Vocal Album
Who will win: Some Nights – Fun.
Despite being nominated six times, I think this is only one of two times that Fun. will win at this year’s Grammys. In addition to Florence & the Machine, Fun. is simply on a different musical level than the other three nominees. Any album that has provided two smash hits, and likely several more, on radio stations of various genres deserves recognition.
Who I want to win: Ceremonials – Florence & the Machine
Ceremonials is too good to be placed alongside most of these nominees. It can hardly be classified as traditional pop so the likelihood of it winning is slim to none. The last time an artist remotely similar to Florence & the Machine won was 2009 with Duffy’s Rockferry. The past three years, the Grammys have chosen more popular radio artists such as Lady Gaga. It is unlikely that this will change this year.
Long shots: Overexposed – Maroon 5, The Truth About Love – Pink, Stronger – Kelly Clarkson
Maroon 5 has gotten infinitely worse since they won Best New Artist in 2005. If they could not win in this category with 2007’s It Won’t Be Soon Before Long, which contained the songs “Wake Up Call,” “Won’t Go Home Without You,” and “If I Never See Your Face Again,” it is unlikely they will win here. Same goes for Pink and Kelly Clarkson. They have lost at the Grammys for far better material.
Best Rock Performance
Who will win: “I Will Wait” – Mumford & Sons
Up to this point, I have had The Black Keys beat Mumford & Sons every time they have been matched against each other. However, I find it hard to believe the Grammys would ignore Mumford & Sons in every category, even though they did in 2011.
Who I want to win: “Hold On” – Alabama Shakes
Alabama Shakes deserves an award simply for being able to fool nearly every listener into thinking that their lead singer is male, when in fact, she isn’t. My favorite thing about this song is that it has a lot more soul than most rock songs. It provides a nice combination of genres, which is increasingly popular lately.
Possibilities: “Lonely Boy” – The Black Keys, “Charlie Brown” – Coldplay
At this point, I am sure both the Grammys and viewers will be tired of seeing The Black Keys accepting awards on stage. They will have probably won so many of the big awards that a loss here will seem like no big deal. As far as Coldplay goes, they only have about a 30 percent winning streak at the Grammys. In previous years, out of 23 nominations, they have won 7. Last year, they lost in this category with their song “Every Teardrop is a Waterfall,” but “Charlie Brown” is an overall better song so I think they have more of a chance here.
Long shot: “We Take Care of our Own” – Bruce Springsteen
In recent years, the Grammys have been targeting a younger demographic so I would be surprised if Springsteen won here. Of course, I might be just telling myself that because I do not want him to win. However, last year, the first year the award was given, the Grammys chose veteran rockers the Foo Fighters over the likes of Coldplay and Mumford & Sons so I cannot completely rule Springsteen out.
Best Rap/Sung Collaboration
Who will win/who I want to win: “No Church in the Wild” – Jay-Z and Kanye West ft. Frank Ocean and The-Dream
Jay-Z, Kanye West and Frank Ocean are basically the dream team in this genre, perhaps in all of music. A collaboration this fantastic is something the Grammys simply cannot ignore. Jay-Z has won five out of the eight times he has been nominated in this category, and West has won three out the six times he has been nominated. That is a pretty good winning percentage that will surely only increase come Feb. 10.
Possibility: “Cherry Wine” Nas ft. Amy Winehouse
Honestly, I would have put every other song besides “No Church in the Wild” in the “long shot” category. However, the Grammys might choose “Cherry Wine” simply to honor the late Winehouse, much like they did last year when her song with Tony Bennett, “Body and Soul,” won in a different category.
Long shots: “Wild Ones” – Flo Rida ft. Sia, “Talk that Talk” – Rihanna ft. Jay-Z, “Tonight (Best You Ever Had)” – John Legend ft. Ludacris
“Wild Ones” is a surprisingly poppy choice to even be nominated in this category. Plus, this award typically goes to a song in which all collaborators dabble in rap/sung songs more than Sia has. If anyone were to break that “rule,” it would be Winehouse. While Jay-Z and Rihanna have won for a previous collaboration, if Jay-Z wins this year, it will certainly not be for this song.
